A precomputed example. Controls unlock with Pro.
Sample simulation, not your portfolio.
One plausible path, with ordinary market ups and downs. The ending balance lines up with the P50 on the chart.
| Year | Market | Added | Change | Balance | P10 | P50 | P90 | What happened |
|---|
A single line with a fixed return hides something important: real years are good and bad in a random order. This Monte Carlo simulator plays out a thousand possible futures for your plan, each with its own sequence of returns, and shows the range of results.
You get three reference lines: a bad case (1 in 10 futures ends below it), the middle case and a good case, plus the probability of reaching your goal. It turns “I will get there” into “I get there in about this share of futures”, which is a more honest way to plan.
With $10,000 to start, $500 a month for 25 years and a $500,000 goal, the smooth 7% line says you almost make it. Across a thousand simulated futures, only about 45% reach the goal. Raising the monthly amount and adding a few years pushes that probability well above 80%.
A method that repeats a calculation thousands of times with random values, like rolling dice for each year’s return, to see the range of possible outcomes instead of just one.
Broad stock indexes typically swing around 15% a year. A mix with bonds swings less. Higher volatility widens the range of results.
No. It uses the same average and swings for every year and real markets can have uglier days than the model. It is a way to think in probabilities, not a forecast.
You can see a full example for free. Running it with your own numbers is part of Wealth Atlas Pro.